Typical King County family can again afford median-priced house

The typical King County family now can afford the typical King County house, according to the Washington Center for Real Estate Research's housing affordability index.

By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times business reporter
August 26, 2009

This year, for the first time since 2004, the typical King County family again can afford the typical King County house, according to one widely circulated measure.

The Washington Center for Real Estate Research's "housing affordability index" for the county for the second quarter was 102.4. That means a median-income family earned 2.4 percent more than needed to carry the mortgage payments with conventional financing on a median-priced house, put at $387,500.

King County home prices have experienced double-digit drops since hitting an all-time high two years ago. The improving affordability index indicates "the price declines have been enough to offset the stagnation in incomes" from the recession, said Glenn Crellin, director of the center at Washington State University.

Affordability-index scores in neighboring counties also have risen, a change the four-county Puget Sound Regional Council highlighted in a recent report.

"Equilibrium between home prices and income has been re-established for the typical middle-income family," principal planner Carol Naito wrote.

King County's affordability index also topped 100 in the first quarter. Before then, it hadn't hit that benchmark — the index's dividing line between affordable and unaffordable — in five years.

In the third quarter of 2007, the index dropped to a low of 64.7 — meaning a median-income family earned only about 65 percent of what the research center figures is needed to buy a median-priced house without taking on too much debt.

The improved scores suggest that "real people — people with jobs — can afford to buy houses here again," said Jill Wood, president of Windermere Real Estate.

Tim Ellis, editor of the Seattle Bubble real-estate blog, agreed that houses have become much more affordable recently. He produces his own similar index, which indicates King County houses were even more affordable during the second quarter than during the pre-housing bubble years of 2000-2003.

But the indexes don't factor in the availability of financing, Ellis added:

"It's not nearly as easy to get as it was before. ... The affordability rate is great — if you qualify for the best financing."

To come up with its index scores, Crellin's research center plugs in:

• Each county's median family income — which doesn't include single-person households or households of unrelated persons;

• The median price of single-family homes sold in that county during the quarter;

• The Federal Housing Finance Agency's figures on the effective interest rate for loans closed on existing homes that quarter.

Then the center calculates whether that typical family can afford that median-priced house, assuming a 30-year loan with a 20 percent down payment and an allocation of 25 percent of the family's income for principal and interest payments.

Will the index's trend toward greater affordability continue? That's unclear, Crellin said

Median home prices — a key component of the index — have dropped in part because a larger share of sales are lower-priced homes being purchased by first-time buyers using the $8,000 federal tax credit, he said. "What happens when that tax credit expires at the end of November?" Crellin said. Low interest rates also have been a "huge factor" in improving affordability, Ellis said. If they rise, affordability could suffer.

The Washington Center for Real Estate Research also produces a first-time buyer affordability index, using lower assumptions for income, house price and down payment.

In King County, that score for the second quarter was 57.0, an indication housing still isn't affordable for many prospective newcomers to homeownership.

But that's up from 36.1 in the third quarter of 2007.

For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2009738318_affordability26.html

Index shows U.S. home prices increase from 1Q to 2Q

Home prices posted their first quarterly increase in three years, signaling the housing market has turned a corner.

By J.W. ELPHINSTONE
AP Real Estate Writer
August 25, 2009

NEW YORK —Home prices posted their first quarterly increase in three years, signaling the housing market has turned a corner.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday rose nearly 3 percent from the first quarter to 133, though that reading is still down almost 15 percent from the second quarter last year.

Home prices are at levels not seen since early 2003. Prices have fallen 30 percent from the peak in the second quarter of 2006.

The monthly index of 20 major cities increased 1.4 percent from May to June to 142, the second straight month the index registered a gain. All but two cities, Las Vegas and Detroit, saw home prices rise, and Dallas and Denver clocked their fourth-straight monthly increase.

Prices, however, have a long way to go to recover completely. Every metro showed annual declines, with fifteen reporting double-digit drops.

The Case-Shiller index is a composite of home price indexes for the nine U.S. census divisions. The 20-city index measures home price increases and decreases relative to prices in January 2000. The base reading is 100; so a reading of 150 would mean that home prices increased 50 percent since the beginning of the index.

For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009734744_aphomeprices.html

July home sales surge more than 7 percent

he U.S. housing market is rebounding quicker than expected, with home resales in July posting the largest monthly increase in at least 10 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.

By Alan Zibel
AP Real Estate Writer
August 21, 2009

WASHINGTON —The U.S. housing market is rebounding quicker than expected, with home resales in July posting the largest monthly increase in at least 10 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.

The National Association of Realtors said Friday that home sales rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June. It was the fourth-straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007.

Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 5 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

"The housing market, with today's strong rise in sales, has decisively turned for the better," said Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist.

Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up about a third of all transactions last month, down from nearly half earlier this year. In places like San Diego and Orlando, buyers are snapping up foreclosed properties at deep discounts, and real estate agents are pressing banks to release more foreclosures onto the market.

Those sales helped drag down the median sales price by 15 percent to $178,400.

First-time buyers must complete their sales transactions by the end of November to take advantage of a tax credit of 10 percent of the purchase price, up to $8,000. The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to get the credit extended.

"It would be unfortunate to see the momentum halted," Yun said.

The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose to 4.1 million, from 3.8 million a month earlier. That's a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from June.

For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009707657_apushomesales.html

Median U.S. home price rise from 1st quarter to 2nd

A real estate group says U.S. home prices posted a gain in the second quarter, another sign that the ailing housing market is finally coming to life.

By Alan Zibel
AP Real Estate Writer
August 12, 2009

WASHINGTON — A real estate group says U.S. home prices posted a gain in the second quarter, another sign that the ailing housing market is finally coming to life.

The National Association of Realtors says the median sales price in the quarter was $174,100, up 4 percent from the first quarter, but still almost 16 percent below a year ago. Prices, however, were still down from a year ago in 129 out of 155 metropolitan areas the group tracks.

Total sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, from 4.58 million in the first quarter, but were still about 3 percent below a year ago.

For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2009647626_apusmetrohomeprices.html

Quote of the Day

We will either find a way or make one. - Hannibal

Bill Donahoe on KKOL 1300 AM Sound Business

Bill Donahoe, co-President of Solution Partners NW discussed the real estate market on Sound Business with Mike Siegel.

Click HERE to listen in!

KKOL 1300 AM-6am to 9am www.1300kol.com
© 2009 Salem Communications Friday, August 7, 2009

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Rises to One-Year High

By Bob Willis
Bloomberg.com
August 17, 2009

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose to a one-year high, another sign that the worst of the housing decline that began in 2006 has passed.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index climbed to 18, matching forecasts by economists and reaching the highest level since June 2008, the Washington-based group said today. A reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor.

Lower prices and government tax credits for first-time buyers have stabilized home sales, setting the stage for builders to gradually step up construction from record lows. Job losses, rising foreclosures and tight credit are a reminder that any recovery in housing will be slow to develop, limiting sales at builders such a D.R. Horton Inc. and Pulte Homes Inc.

“Inventory is being cleared and that is starting to benefit the new-home market,” said Julia Coronado, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “With a few months’ lag, that will lead to a turnaround in construction activity.”

Stocks dropped around the world as investors speculated the recent rally in riskier assets had outpaced prospects for economic growth. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 2.3 percent to 981.05 at 1:41 p.m. in New York. The S&P builder supercomposite was down 3.3 percent.

Matches Forecast

The index was forecast to increase to 18 this month from 17 in July, according to the median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from 17 to 21.

The gauge reached a record low of 8 in January and averaged 16 in 2008. It was first published in January 1985.

The confidence survey asks builders to characterize current sales as “good,” “fair” or “poor” and to gauge prospective buyers’ traffic. It also asks participants to assess the outlook for the next six months.

Last month’s gain was led by an increase in sales expectations over the next six months, which reached the highest level since April 2008. The measure of buyer traffic also improved, while a gauge that tracks current sales was little changed.

The increase in expectations “reflects anticipated sales stemming from the tax credit as well as recent signs that an economic recovery has begun,”David Crowe, chief economist of the builders’ group, said in a statement. “There is definitely a sense of hope among builders that the worst of the downturn is over and that a turning point is near at hand.”

Buyer Credit

In a bid to boost the housing market, the Obama administration’s stimulus measures included an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers for purchases completed by Dec. 1.

Confidence increased in three of four regions, led by a jump in the Northeast. The South was the only area where confidence fell.

Builders probably broke ground on more houses in July for a third month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the Commerce Department will report tomorrow. Starts probably rose to a 598,000 annual pace from 582,000 in June, according to the survey median. Starts are down 74 percent from their January 2006 peak.

Other housing data in recent months have also signaled the market has bottomed. Combined sales of both new and existing homes have risen for four out of five months since January. That helped push the total number of houses on the market in June down to 4.1 million, a million less than the peak in July 2007.

Prices Stabilizing

Home price declines are also slowing. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in the 20 largest cities fell 17.1 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month drop in nine months. The index rose 0.5 percent from the prior month, the first such gain since July 2006.

While the overall economy is showing signs of emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s, any recovery will be slow to develop. Economists surveyed earlier this month forecast unemployment will reach 10 percent by 2010 and gains in consumer spending will be smaller than the average over the last decade as Americans rebuild savings.

Homebuilders are still racking up losses. Forth Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton and Pulte Homes, based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, on Aug. 4 reported quarterly losses and said the outlook for the housing market remains difficult. The companies are the first- and second-largest U.S. homebuilders.

“Market conditions in the homebuilding industry are still challenging, characterized by rising foreclosures, high inventory levels of available homes, increasing unemployment, tight credit for homebuyers and weak consumer confidence,” Chairman Donald Horton said in a statement.

For link to article, visit http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHEpm4Gsg0To

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Over 90 visitors in one weekend? You heard it right!

The grand opening of The Continental Condos was a smashing success!

Over the last weekend, we held the Grand Opening of The Continental Condominiums directly across the street from Bellevue Square. It was a hit! At nearly 100 guests, it was extremely well attended and we couldn’t be more thrilled at the excitement over this unique boutique community!

It was a wonderfully diverse crowd! A wide range of buyers - from first time homeowners to move down; people would had either lived here when they were apartments or knew someone who had; neighbors who had been following the construction and couldn’t wait to see how it turned out; real estate agents who had a client in mind to show; and of course, friends and family. We had rave reviews and very positive feedback.

If you haven’t taken the time to come out and see this “world class” community, don’t wait too long. With this overwhelming response, we will be sold out in no time!

Visit our sales center!
511 100th Ave NE
Bellevue, WA 98004
Open Saturday & Sunday 11am to 6pm
Monday to Friday 12pm to 6pm

www.thecontinentalcondos.com
425.455.0833

Fed says economy leveling out; rates stay at lows

The Federal Reserve delivered a vote of confidence in the economy Wednesday, saying it would slow the pace of an emergency rescue program and indicating the recession appears to be ending.

By Jeannine Aversa
AP Economics Writer
August 13, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve delivered a vote of confidence in the economy Wednesday, saying it would slow the pace of an emergency rescue program and indicating the recession appears to be ending.

The central bank also held interest rates steady at record lows, with a closely watched bank lending rate near zero, and again pledged to keep them there for "an extended period" to nurture an anticipated recovery.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues said the economy appeared to be "leveling out" - a considerable upgrade from their last meeting in June, when the Fed observed only that the economy's contraction was slowing.

"We're no longer at DEFCON 1," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research, referring to the defense term used to indicate being under siege. "The Fed is pulling in some of its life preservers now that the economy is no longer sinking."

The more optimistic tone lifted Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrials gained about 120 points, or 1.3 percent, to close above 9,360 - near their highest level since the market bottomed out in early March.

The Fed said it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled.

It has bought $253 billion of the securities so far. The program is designed to force interest rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt and spur Americans to spend more money.

"I think the Fed is feeling increasingly comfortable about where the economy is going," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "For the first time in two years, the Fed is taking one step - a baby step - toward unwinding the massive stimulus."

The Treasury-buying program's effectiveness has been questioned on both Wall Street and Capitol Hill, with critics saying it looks like the Fed is printing money to pay for Uncle Sam's spending binge.

As the Fed winds down the program, rates on government debt might edge higher, economists said. But the Fed appeared to feel sufficiently secure that higher rates would not jeopardize a recovery, they said.

Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, viewed it as a "vote of confidence that credit markets and the economic outlook has improved and will show even further improvement down the road." The Fed left unchanged another program that aims to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the end of the year.

The central bank's recent purchases have totaled about $543 billion, suggesting the Fed still has firepower in its arsenal.

The Fed left the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And economists think it will stay there through the rest of this year. The rationale: Super-cheap lending will lead Americans to spend more, which will support the economy.

If the Fed holds rates steady, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used as a peg for rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

The Fed gave its assessment after its first meeting since the economy began flashing significant signs of turning a corner. They include fewer job losses in July, slower economic contraction and stabilizing consumer spending. But dangers still lurk.

Further job losses, sluggish income growth, hits to wealth from tanking home values and still-hard-to-get credit could make Americans cautious in the months ahead, the Fed said.

The Fed expressed confidence that low rates and other aggressive action will gradually bolster the economy. Even so, economic activity probably will "remain weak for a time," the Fed warned.

Against that backdrop, the Fed said inflation is likely to stay "subdued." Fed policymakers predicted that idle factories and the weak employment market will make it hard for companies to jack up prices.

While unemployment dipped to 9.4 percent in July, the Fed says it's likely to top 10 percent this year because companies are in no rush to hire.

The Fed offered no hints about the fate of another program intended to spark more lending to individuals and businesses at lower rates.

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which had gotten off to a slow start in March, is slated to shut down at the end of December. And people are having trouble getting loans anyway, analysts say. More recently, the program was expanded to provide relief to the commercial real-estate market.

The Fed has been weighing whether it should end some of its economic revival programs now that signs are growing that the worst recession to hit the country since World War II is drawing to a close.

Many analysts believe the economy - which logged a mild contraction in the second quarter after a dizzying fall in the prior six months - is growing now.

"A paradigm shift is occurring at policy deliberations of the Federal Reserve," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University, Channel Islands. "The officials are no longer worried about a severe retrenchment as they were late last year. Now, they are trying to sustain the economic recovery in motion." For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2009643648_apusfedinterestrates.html

Homebuilders Eliminate Frills as First-Time Buyers Drive Sales

By Kathleen M. Howley and Daniel Taub
Bloomberg
August 6, 2009

When Lucas Miller bought his first property in June, he decided it was no time to splurge. He opted for laminate rather than granite kitchen countertops in his $127,000 two-bedroom townhouse in Fishers, Indiana.

“Spending another $20,000 on upgrades just didn’t make sense to me,” said Miller, 30, a chef at Ball State University in Muncie, who bought from Pulte Homes Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder.

Frugal first-time buyers are driving the new-home market with purchases of low-priced houses with no frills. Sales of new homes costing less than $200,000 jumped to 47 percent of all transactions in June, up from 39 percent in May, U.S. Commerce Department data show. Homes under $200,000 accounted for almost half of the sales in the first six months of this year, the biggest share for a first half in five years.

Housing starts rose to a seven-month high in June and sales of new houses gained in each of the last four months, including the 11 percent increase in June that was the biggest in eight years. Spending on residential construction fell to a 13-year low of $252.1 billion in May, the Commerce Department said this week.

The average size of new homes is down to 2,065 square feet, the smallest since 2000, and the median price this year has yet to rise above 2004 levels, according to the Census Bureau. June’s median of $206,200 was 12 percent below a year earlier.

New Frugality

Builders, who lured customers in the housing boom with everything from granite countertops to Sub-Zero refrigerators, are modifying floor plans and options in response to homebuyers’ emphasis on frugality, said Brian Bethune, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

“The high end isn’t moving, so builders have got to dumb- down their designs and put in Formica kitchens and the bare- bones carpeting,” Bethune said in an interview. “New-home buyers are being conservative -- they’re not willing to pay for the extras because they’re worried about the economy.”

Demand is being driven by the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit, said David Crow, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.

Properties in KB Home’s Bonita Canyon development in Fontana, California, were scaled down for first-time buyers. About 90 houses using KB’s new Open Series design are planned and half are sold, said Steve Ruffner, president of the Los Angeles-based company’s Southern California division. The houses are listed at $235,000 to $278,000.

Smaller Homes

The homes are 1,400 to 2,200 square feet, 30 percent smaller than previous designs, to reduce building costs, Ruffner said. Bathrooms are built back-to-back so only one plumbing tree is needed and there are fewer internal walls. It takes less than 10 weeks to complete an Open Series home, compared with almost 20 weeks for a house with older specifications, Ruffner said.

“It is very open inside,” Ruffner said. “You can decide how big your living room should be or how big your dining room should be.”

KB Home officials wouldn’t discuss construction costs. At a company development in Texas, the average Open Series home is priced $60,000 lower than KB Home’s previous models, and the cost to build them is $80,000 less, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Mezger said on a conference call in June.

Flexible Floor Plan

First-time buyers Leona Fisher and husband Will Sankhla bought a four-bedroom house in Bonita Canyon, lured by the flexible interior design, said Fisher, 27, a doctoral candidate in English. She turned a second-story loft space into an office for her and an editing bay for Sankhla, 32, a documentary filmmaker.

This year’s best performers in the Standard and Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilders Index are companies that focus on first-time buyers. Irvine, California-based Standard Pacific Corp. has more than doubled and Meritage Homes Corp., based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is up 84 percent. KB Home shares are up more than 32 percent this year through yesterday.

Standard Pacific and Meritage sell houses that average $279,000 to $302,000. Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, sells for an average of $600,000 and has the worst performance in the index this year, with a loss of 3 percent.

Orders for Meritage homes rose to 1,147 in the second quarter from 987 in the first three months of the year. M.D.C. Holdings Inc., the Denver-based builder of starter homes, said orders increased on a quarterly basis for the first time in four years.

‘Scared Buyers’

The design changes are helping some builders improve gross profit. Standard Pacific said second-quarter gross margin excluding certain expenses rose to 18.5 percent from 12.9 percent a year-earlier in part due to lower construction costs.

“Three years ago, everyone wanted the big house with the media room and the three-car garage,” said Sean Donahue, a broker with Re/Max Traditions in Woodstock, Illinois. “Today, a lot of people are scared about their jobs, so they’re opting for smaller floor plans and basic designs.”

Miller, the Ball State chef, said he was so determined to buy an affordable home he considered purchasing a foreclosed property. He decided his townhouse was a better deal.

“Everything is brand new, and the laminate countertops work just fine,” he said.

For link to article, visit http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akCaYx29BrI8

The Continental Condos Grand Opening

Solution Partners NW - Windermere is pleased to announce the Grand Opening of an extraordinary "world class community in the very heart of Bellevue...

THE CONTINENTAL CONDOMINIUMS

The Continental is a 39 (ooops 37... we have already sold 2!) unit condominium project that offers a boutique living experience and an alternative to downtown Bellevue high-rise living.

We are proud to have the opportunity to represent this high caliber project, as presented by one of the Northwest's premier builder/developers - Jim Cronkhite.

To see what all the buzz is about, we invite you to our Grand Opening on Saturday, August 8th from 11am to 6pm.

Feel free to contact us anytime for information about our new, innovative marketing strategies! We have proven success and expertise that we can bring to your next project! We bring a team solutions approach that just plain gets the job done!

To quote Jim: "From the beginning, Solution Partners NW was a key part of our team and is a major reason this project has turned into such a success story. Their impact on feasibility, project specifications and marketing are and continue to be exceptional."

For more info on The Continental Condos, please visit http://thecontinentalcondos.com/ or call 425.455.0833

Quote of the Day

Enthusiasm releases the drive to carry you over obstacles and adds significance to all you do. -Norman Vincent Peal

King County home sales climb to two-year high in July

Homebuyers in King County closed on 1,727 houses last month, the largest number of sales since August 2007, the month the real-estate downturn began.

By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times business reporter
August 5, 2009

Home sales in King County surged to their highest level in nearly two years in July, according to statistics released today by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Buyers closed on 1,727 houses last month, the service said — the largest number of sales since August 2007, the month the real-estate downturn began.

The number of closed sales in July was 10.6 percent higher than the same month last year, the service said — the second monthly year-over-year increase in a row.

Pending single-family home sales — offers that were accepted by sellers in July, but haven't yet closed — also were up 19.5 percent from July 2008, continuing a trend that began in April.

Brokers hailed the sales statistics as evidence of recovery.

"The rise of pending sales over the past few months is the best indication we have of what's to come and I am encouraged by what we're seeing," Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in a prepared statement.

Other brokers credited the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers for much of the increased activity.

There was no evidence of a turnaround in prices, however: The median price of a house that sold in July in King County was $384,000, down from $395,000 in June and $445,000 in July 2008 — a 13.7 percent decline year-over-year.

The median King County condo price was $250,000, down 9.8 percent year-over-year. Pending condo sales were up 9.8 percent, but closed sales declined 9.4 percent.

Single-family home sales in Snohomish County in July were up even more than in King County. Closed sales increased 18.4 percent from the same month last year, pending sales 32.9 percent, the listing service said.

The median price declined 14.3 percent, from $350,000 to $299,990.

For link to article, visit http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2009605109_webhomesales05.html

WestView Ridge Broker Tour - Friday August 7th!

Come see what the buzz is about at WestView Ridge!

BROKER TOUR - FRIDAY AUGUST 7th - 11am to 2pm

FREE COFFEE CARDS to all AGENTS WHO TOUR OUR COMMUNITY. Snacks & Drinks provided too!

3% SOC plus $1,000 BONUS on all accepted offers on completed homes received by August 31, 2009.

HOMES READY FOR MOVE-IN NOW!

Click image for full size.

www.WestViewRidge.com 425.263.9602